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Birthrate by Month

I was in a discussion about horoscopes and how they’re wrong, when a possibly crazy claim came up: most people are born in one half of the year instead of another.

Because it’s trivially true if all you need is 50% + 1 to make it “most” — I pressed the guy making the claim for some numbers behind it. He claimed that the six months that has the highest birthrate had 10% more people born than the six months that has the lowest birthrate. This sounded way too large, so we made a $20 bet.

Turns out it is simple to find the month that most people are born in — but getting month-by-month data was kinda tricky. You can find 1995-2002 data for the US birthrate by month here.

I’ve embedded the analysis below — turns out it was a closer bet than I was expecting.

Turns out there’s roughly a 6% difference between the most … birthy half of the year relative to the least birthy half of the year. If birthy isn’t a word, I’m inventing it now. I would have guess about half of the real answer.

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